Distributed Collaborative Prognostics

Managing large fleets of machines in a cost-effective way is becoming more important as corporations own increasingly large amounts of assets. The steady improvement in cost and reliability of sensors, processors and communication devices has helped the spread of a new paradigm: the Internet of Things. This paradigm allows for real-time monitoring of countless physical objects, obtaining data that can be fed to machine learning algorithms to predict their future state and take managerial decisions. Despite rapid technological change, industries have been slow to react, and it has been only recently that many have transitioned towards a new business model: servitisation. Servitisation is based on selling the services that assets provide, instead of the assets themselves. Although more companies are adopting this business model, there is a lack of solutions aimed to maximise its economic value. This thesis presents one such solution capable of predicting failures in real time, thus reducing a crucial cost contribution to asset ownership: unexpected failures. This new approach, Distributed Collaborative Prognostics, consists of providing each machine with its own particular agent, that enables it to communicate with other similar machines in order to improve its failure predictions. This thesis implements Distributed Collaborative Prognostics in three different scenarios: (i) using a multi-agent simulation framework, (ii) using synthetic data from a well-established prognostics data set, and (iii) using real data from a fleet of industrial gas turbines. Each of these scenarios is used to study different elements of the prognostics problem. Multi-agent simulations allow for the calculation of the cost of predictive maintenance coupled with Distributed Collaborative Prognostics, and for the estimation of the cost of agent failures in different architectures. Synthetic data is used as a test bench and to study assets operating in dynamic situations. Real industrial data from the Siemens industrial gas turbine fleet serves to test the applicability of the tool in a real scenario. This thesis concludes that Distributed Collaborative Prognostics is the adequate solution for large and heterogeneous fleets of assets operating dynamically. Its cost effectiveness depends on the value of the assets; in general, highly-valued assets are more conducive to Distributed Collaborative Prognostics, as the savings from improved failure predictions compensate the cost of enabling them with Internet of Things technologies.This PhD Thesis has been supported by a “la Caixa" Fellowship (ID 100010434), with code LCF/BQ/EU17/11590049

Multi-agent system architectures for collaborative prognostics

Funder: Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery UKAbstract: This paper provides a methodology to assess the optimal multi-agent architecture for collaborative prognostics in modern fleets of assets. The use of multi-agent systems has been shown to improve the ability to predict equipment failures by enabling machines with communication and collaborative learning capabilities. Different architectures have been postulated for industrial multi-agent systems in general. A rigorous analysis of the implications of their implementation for collaborative prognostics is essential to guide industrial deployment. In this paper, we investigate the cost and reliability implications of using different multi-agent systems architectures for collaborative failure prediction and maintenance optimization in large fleets of industrial assets. Results show that purely distributed architectures are optimal for high-value assets, while hierarchical architectures optimize communication costs for low-value assets. This enables asset managers to design and implement multi-agent systems for predictive maintenance that significantly decrease the whole-life cost of their assets

Atom sieve for nanometer resolution neutral helium microscopy

Neutral helium microscopy is a new tool for imaging fragile and/or insulating structures as well as structures with large aspect ratios. In one configuration of the microscope, neutral helium atoms are focused as de Broglie matter waves using a Fresnel zone plate. The ultimate resolution is determined by the width of the outermost zone. Due to the low-energy beam (typically less than 0.1 eV), the neutral helium atoms do not penetrate solid materials and the Fresnel zone plate therefore has to be a free-standing structure. This creates particular fabrication challenges. The so-called Fresnel photon sieve structure is especially attractive in this context, as it consists merely of holes. Holes are easier to fabricate than the free-standing rings required in a standard Fresnel zone plate for helium microscopy, and the diameter of the outermost holes can be larger than the width of the zone that they cover. Recently, a photon sieve structure was used for the first time, as an atom sieve, to focus a beam of helium atoms down to a few micrometers. The holes were randomly distributed along the Fresnel zones to suppress higher order foci and side lobes. Here, the authors present a new atom sieve design with holes distributed along the Fresnel zones with a fixed gap. This design gives higher transmission and higher intensity in the first order focus. The authors present an alternative electron beam lithography fabrication procedure that can be used for making high transmission atom sieves with a very high resolution, potentially smaller than 10 nm. The atom sieves were patterned on a 35 nm or a 50 nm thick silicon nitride membrane. The smallest hole is 35 nm, and the largest hole is 376 nm. In a separate experiment, patterning micrometer-scale areas with hole sizes down to 15 nm is demonstrated. The smallest gap between neighboring holes in the atom sieves is 40 nm. They have 47011 holes each and are 23.58 μm in diameter. The opening ratio is 22.60%, and the Fresnel zone coverage of the innermost zones is as high as 0.68. This high-density pattern comes with certain fabrication challenges, which the authors discuss

Subcutaneous anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin for prevention of disease in asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trialResearch in context

Summary: Background: Anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin (hIG) can provide standardized and controlled antibody content. Data from controlled clinical trials using hIG for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 outpatients have not been reported. We assessed the safety and efficacy of subcutaneous anti-COVID-19 hyperimmune immunoglobulin 20% (C19-IG20%) compared to placebo in preventing development of symptomatic COVID-19 in asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: We did a multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, in asymptomatic unvaccinated adults (≥18 years of age) with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 5 days between April 28 and December 27, 2021. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive a blinded subcutaneous infusion of 10 mL with 1 g or 2 g of C19-IG20%, or an equivalent volume of saline as placebo. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who remained asymptomatic through day 14 after infusion. Secondary endpoints included the proportion of individuals who required oxygen supplementation, any medically attended visit, hospitalisation, or ICU, and viral load reduction and viral clearance in nasopharyngeal swabs. Safety was assessed as the proportion of patients with adverse events. The trial was terminated early due to a lack of potential benefit in the target population in a planned interim analysis conducted in December 2021. ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT04847141. Findings: 461 individuals (mean age 39.6 years [SD 12.8]) were randomized and received the intervention within a mean of 3.1 (SD 1.27) days from a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. In the prespecified modified intention-to-treat analysis that included only participants who received a subcutaneous infusion, the primary outcome occurred in 59.9% (91/152) of participants receiving 1 g C19-IG20%, 64.7% (99/153) receiving 2 g, and 63.5% (99/156) receiving placebo (difference in proportions 1 g C19-IG20% vs. placebo, −3.6%; 95% CI -14.6% to 7.3%, p = 0.53; 2 g C19-IG20% vs placebo, 1.1%; −9.6% to 11.9%, p = 0.85). None of the secondary clinical efficacy endpoints or virological endpoints were significantly different between study groups. Adverse event rate was similar between groups, and no severe or life-threatening adverse events related to investigational product infusion were reported. Interpretation: Our findings suggested that administration of subcutaneous human hyperimmune immunoglobulin C19-IG20% to asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection was safe but did not prevent development of symptomatic COVID-19. Funding: Grifols